NFL mock drafts put many QBs in first round of 2024 draft. Guess how often that's worked?

Dozens of mock drafts leading up to this week's NFL draft have suggested that five quarterbacks could be selected in the first round. Some even speculate as many as six QBs could be drafted Thursday night.

It's no wonder considering how important the position has become to a team's offense and often the team's success.

But just because a quarterback is drafted in the first 32 picks of the NFL draft doesn't guarantee that he will be a franchise quarterback. A simple analysis of drafts since 1999 found just two of every five first-round quarterbacks have been their team's long-term answer.

Mock draft tracker:5 possible first-round picks for every team in the 2024 NFL draft

Searchable NFL 2024 draft order:Easy way to see every teams' picks from Rounds 1 to 7

How many QBs have been linked to teams in USA TODAY's 2024 mock drafts

In USA TODAY's mock drafts since January, our experts have predicted no fewer than four quarterbacks – possibly three in the first three picks – will be taken in this year's first round.

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2021's QB class looks more like Zach Wilson than Trevor Lawrence

The last time five quarterbacks (three in the first three) were selected in the first round, Trevor Lawrence was the top pick. He's already led the Jacksonville Jaguars to the playoffs in 2022 and earned a Pro Bowl nod.

Zach Wilson and Trey Lance were selected second and third in the 2021 draft. Both already landed on USA TODAY's list of 50 biggest busts along with Justin Fields, now with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Mac Jones. Of all 10 quarterbacks taken in 2021, Jones (15th by New England) is the only other player to make a Pro Bowl, but he most likely will back up Lawrence this season in Jacksonville.

Pro Bowl selections as a measure of a quarterback's "success"

Pro Bowl selections offer a relatively consistent measure of players who have risen above their peers. During the past decade, about 10 quarterbacks – nearly a third of the league – have been named to the Pro Bowl annually.

USA TODAY compiled a list of the 74 quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL draft since 1999 and used Pro Bowls as an initial yardstick. Only 34 of those 74 quarterbacks, or 46%, have made one Pro Bowl. We also factored in longevity and playoff data from Pro Football Reference. 

How often NFL teams hit on 1st-round quarterback selections

What about the other NFL draft classes?

While 1983 remains the year of the quarterback, half of the quarterbacks selected that year are in the Hall of Fame, one earned two Pro Bowl honors but still two fell short. 

The class of 1999, which featured a top-three trio, is more representative of teams' successes, or lack there of, in drafting their franchise quarterback.

Of the three, Donovan McNabb, taken second by Philadelphia in 1999, earned the franchise quarterback moniker, while the top pick that year Tim Couch (Cleveland) and Akili Smith (Cincinnati) were both out of the NFL within five years. 

Of the other two quarterbacks picked in the first round, Daunte Culpepper (No. 11 by Minnesota) earned three Pro Bowl nominations while Cade McNown (No. 12 by Chicago) played 25 games over two seasons.

It's not just about the first-round picks

As many as 20 quarterbacks could be drafted, according to the NFL, between Thursday and Saturday, and maybe one of the league's next top quarterbacks will be found in later rounds.

The obvious example: Tom Brady, the best player picked in the last 25 years, or possibly ever, waited six rounds until he received New England's fateful call in 2000. The only quarterback picked in the first round that year: Chad Pennington, 18th, by the Jets.

Perhaps 2012 might serve as a comparison to this year's class.

While Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III drew much of the attention at the top, three others have enjoyed longer, more productive careers: Ryan Tannehill, Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins. Nick Foles, another 2012 pick, doesn't have an impressive career stat line, but, like Wilson, has a Super Bowl ring.

Quarterbacks in the 2024 draft

All signs and mock drafts point to the Chicago Bears taking 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams from Southern California with the first pick of the draft Thursday night.

The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels from LSU could hear his name called second by the Washington Commanders. If not, the Patriots would likely select Daniels with the third pick should the Commanders take Drake Maye from North Carolina. J.J. McCarthy from Michigan has also been considered a top-five or -six pick.

Here are the 14 quarterbacks who were invited to attend the 2024 NFL scouting combine.

The 2024 mock drafts behind the tracker

Want to take closer look at the USA TODAY's mock drafts? Here are a few of the mock drafts developed by Nate Davis and Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz:

◾ Feb. 26: Can question-mark QB J.J. McCarthy crack top 15 picks? Read more

◾ March 12: Four QBs in top five as Vikings trade up after Kirk Cousins leaves. Read more

◾ April 3: Who will Bills land to replace Stefon Diggs at wide receiver? Readmore

◾ April 15: J.J. McCarthy or Drake Maye for Patriots at No. 3? Read more

◾ April 22: Six QBs make first-round cut as trade possibilities remain Read more